The Euro crisis and Rubber Prices

Anybody reading world news, especially on the economy, hasn’t seen one day go by without new disturbing headlines about the fate of the Euro, the Euro zone, and the consequences for the world economy.

This has been dubbed the second financial crisis; the first being the bursting of the real estate bubble in the U. S. (As it happens I was a victim of that bust as real estate prices plummeted to a level below the actual value, which came at a time when I was selling my house in Florida. Instead of pocketing a nice profit, I had to make do with just a fraction of that.) Anyway, the second financial crisis, although in part directly connected to the real estate bubble in the U. S., has been brought on by governments in the Euro zone overspending, which led to some countries having more debt than their GDP, e. g. Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and the most notorious of them all – Greece. Ireland’s banks were heavily involved in U. S. real estate. Some of them had to be bailed out by the government. Portugal and Spain had their own real estate bubble that could only burst as well, as all bubbles eventually will. Italy doesn’t know how to manage money to begin with – how can a country that has had 50 governments in 50 years ever properly administer itself? Greece, with no notable industry besides tourism, an overblown bureaucracy, a non-existent tax collection system, no administration to speak of, and where the public sector comprises 80% of the economy, submitted to the seduction of easy money and loaned money left and right to maintain an opulent life-style, as it would be termed for private individuals.

All countries have in common that their governments issued bonds to finance the big holes that had opened up in their economies - Ireland, Portugal, and Spain for bailing out their banks and Italy, which so far has not needed any help yet, for overspending in the public sector. I don’t want to go into any more detail here. If interested you can always find more in the big international newspapers – both off and online.

Now what does all that have to do with rubber prices? Well, what you read in the papers is that the ‘market’, in other words the ‘speculators’, immediately reacts to any news. Over many years, I have been following this with dismay. It had come to such a point that when there was even the slightest hint of a problem in the Middle East oil prices would jump up within a minute. One could even think that the news when some Middle Eastern potentate so much as broke wind the markets would react. It could be the Middle East, it could be China’s impending cooling of its economy; the reasons are as manifold as there are imaginative financial instruments.

Now for the past 18 months it has been the crisis of the Euro zone. Economists fear that when the rich European nations, mainly Germany and France, bail out their ‘poorer’ co-members, they would overextend themselves and cause the failure of their banks with catastrophic consequences not only for their economies but also for the world economy altogether. Adding fuel to the fire are those private, for profit rating agencies that feel called upon to judge the value of bonds, countries, companies, practically everything. They even downgraded the U. S. debt. The U. S., despite its economic woes, still is the world’s largest economy and without doubt will eventually pull out of its recession and its deep debts, however long it takes. Anybody who thinks that they won’t be able to redeem their treasury bills must live on another planet. So what is that downgrading supposed to mean and to achieve – perhaps maximizing profits for short-sellers? Promptly, the announcement had an instantaneous effect on the markets. The Dow Jones plunged 635 points. Ironically, treasury bills rose the next day – now who can understand that? One shouldn’t forget that those same rating agencies had given toxic real estate derivatives an AAA rating until the whole thing went bust.

Similarly, any news that comes out of Europe regarding the bailout of Greece has an instantaneous effect on the markets. Reading the news about this is like a roller-coaster ride. One day it’s more or less positive, one day is negative, with the negative outweighing the good news. It seems as though journalists thrive on painting bleak pictures.

Initially, all this had virtually no effect on rubber prices but when the Greek problem came up, they eventually took their hit too. In 2010, the strong Chinese economy overshadowed the Euro crisis. China is the largest buyer of natural rubber. Rubber prices remained at an all-time, and somewhat uncomfortable, high. This lasted until April/May of 2011 when Greece’s debt was finally reduced to junk status by the rating agencies. Paired with the fear of a weakening of European and U. S. economies, which would lead to a lowering of Chinese industrial output and reduced purchases of raw materials, this news started the slow but steady decline of rubber prices. This graph aptly illustrates this fact. These prices are for processed crepe rubber on the Malaysian Rubber Exchange; the Cambodian prices follow the exchange.

Month Price/100kg CSK5L

Jan 503.13
Feb 559.70
Mar 539.82
Apr 557.86
May 519.51
Jun 505.83
Jul 485.49
Aug 474.17
Sep 452.31
Oct 427.09

Prices for latex sold in Cambodia to processing plants follow a similar pattern as this graph shows, although there was a short recovery period in June when Euro zone ministers committed to a bailout package for Greece. Prices are $/kg.

Let’s see what this does in dollars and cents for the operators of rubber plantations in Cambodia. 40% of all plantations are smallholders, that is, they range from 5 to 50 ha. Let’s use a 30 ha plantation and an average production of 150 kg of dry latex per ha per month, or 450 kg for 30 ha.

Since February is the so-called wintering period on a plantation, we will start with April of 2011. The owner could record gross revenues for each month until October of this year.

April $ 17,313
May $ 15,255
June $ 17,454
July $ 16,098
August $ 15,606
September $ 15,686
October $ 13,185.

Compared to April the owner had approximately $4,300 less in his pocket in October; this translates into 25%, and that’s a lot of money in anybody’s book. Reason: the news had become extremely volatile in October; some even feared the collapse of the Euro zone. In previous months, the average price levels were helped by intermittent better news, which caused upticks in prices. A major positive decision was reached this week and so far, rubber prices hover a little above their lowest level in 2011. Of course, commodity prices are very high to begin with and an adjustment might be called for, but then markets don’t always react logically.

To those who think this is still a good income in a country like Cambodia I can say they are right but should not forget that those are gross revenues; operating expenses are considerable what with expensive fertilizers, fungicides, manpower, machinery, etc. Additionally, in order to get to this revenue level the owner needs to invest first in land, land preparation, then in seedlings, management, etc. Until trees produce good amounts of latex, the owner has to wait roughly 10 years. Although production usually starts after 6 years, yields are not in the higher range until year 10. So it’s not just sitting back and collecting money.

If you follow a certain reasoning you could say that Greece and the markets not only hold the European governments hostage but the smallholders in Cambodia too, not to mention the huge investment plantations. Greece with its unconscionable policies, and the speculators with their insatiable greed make their actions felt throughout the world. The rubber plantations are but a small part in the overall picture.

It is ironic that a country with a population of roughly 10 million people could get the large European economies (Germany with a population of about 82 million, France with 56 million) into a severe recession, not to mention the reverberations in the rest of the world. It is equally incomprehensible that the markets, say speculators, can determine a government’s policies. Mind you, this is a sector of the economy that does nothing but shuffle papers or hit keys on a computer keyboard and with that produce profits (or losses) for investors. It’s called investment banking. Most of the large banks are engaged in investment banking. They accept huge risks and but when they incur huge losses they all of a sudden become too big to fail and need to be bailed out by the government, in other words, taxpayers’ money. It is an old axiom that only money makes money, consequently if you have no money you cannot invest, but if you have money and you can invest and make a tidy profit, you should also be ready take a loss.

When I went to business school, I learned how to assess the value of a company based on its assets, liabilities, productivity, market position, long-term viability, earnings and earnings potential, etc. Those things have all gone out the window. The dot com bubble showed it, the real estate bubble showed it, and any subsequent bubble will show it as well. There is nothing wrong with trading in stocks, bonds, and such, but when it comes to buying and selling stocks, you don’t even have with borrowed money, a line must be drawn. Just look up the term ‘hedge funds’ and you will get an idea who dominates the financial world and who can ruin many an existence.

If you are interested in following the timeline of the Euro crisis, go to http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13856580

Get out of Here

The SRP expelled two of their parliamentarians, one MP and one Senator, from their ranks for disloyalty. The affected politicians claimed they were kicked out to make room for some relatives of SRP higher-ups, otherwise known as nepotism. Critics of the party have accused the SRP of nepotism before, leveled even at their revered leader Sam Rainsy.

Claims and counter-claims, accusations and denials; these are the hallmarks of political life everywhere. So this incident is not really noteworthy for its happening; but I believe what is noteworthy is the fact that the SRP has no qualms about expelling members that it feels are no longer of value to the party. Also noteworthy is that, according to press reports, the party leadership made the decision. I am not sure what kind of inner-party procedures are set down in their by-laws but it reeks of an arbitrary decision – and this from a party that always portrays itself as the truly democratic political party in Cambodia.

The expelled ex-members indicated they would bring a lawsuit against the party. The party spokesman stated in response that the courts do not have jurisdiction over intra-party affairs. This spokesman is an MP himself and one must scratch one’s head and possibly raise an eyebrow or two at such pronouncements. An MP who is not cognizant of the fact that courts always have jurisdiction over disputes, no matter whom or what it involves, should probably seek employment elsewhere. You can bring a lawsuit against anybody if it is based on existing law. Of course, the outcome of that lawsuit is another question altogether.

A sort of funny story….

.....or maybe not. Petty crime is just as widespread in Cambodia as everywhere else. It starts with people stealing the make and type emblems off cars – the hybrid emblems are especially popular these days - and goes all the way to burglaries.

I live in a gated neighborhood in Phnom Penh with guards at three gates. They patrol the neighborhood at irregular intervals, both day and night. The community is walled in; barbed wire is mounted all around. Sometimes I wonder whether these guards would really be any help if you needed them. They don’t let just anybody in and ask motodups and tuk-tuks their business. But if you drive a car nobody will stop you. If the car is big enough they will give you a snappy salute.

Security is supposed to be good in those neighborhoods; at least my wife used to believe so. One recent night I was awoken by some loud noise. Being half asleep I couldn’t really make out what this was – a party, an argument, or what?

The next day we learned that a burglar had broken into a house nearby. On making his exit he encountered the 14-year-old daughter who returned to her room from a bathroom downstairs. She screamed her lungs out, grabbed the thief by his sleeve and tried to keep him from escaping. But she was no match. The burglar wrestled free and escaped over the balcony.

The people in the house are an American family. Now here is the baffling thing. They had been burglarized 4 times before. Each time the burglar entered the house through an open balcony door on the third (or some say second) floor. Nimble people can easily climb up to those balconies. Most Cambodian houses feature iron bars in the windows. They are an ugly sight but an absolute must as any builder will tell you. But all those bars won’t help if the door is left open.

The parents realized they had been burlarized after each incident – obviously money was missing - but failed to tell their kids so as not to frighten them - not altogether a smart thought. Consequently the kids didn’t feel they needed to observe the simplest form of safety precaution by keeping their doors closed, never mind the floor. Their house is located on the outer perimeter. The wall runs about one meter behind their house. The two adjoining houses are empty. On the outside of wall there is dirt trail – very convenient for any would-be burglars; equally convenient is that there is a gap in the barbed wire between the properties. They can just stroll along that dirt path and look who left the door open. I can only presume this is exactly what the thief in this case did. Having gotten lucky one time he just thought, ‘Well maybe I’ll get lucky with some other careless people.” He may have been surprised himself that he could break into the same house 5 times, assuming it was the same man. How naïve or stupid can that American family be?

The take each time: between $500 and $1,000.

After that incident, we heard that burglaries are not that uncommon in this community. People told about several of them; in one case the booty was a cool $100,000. Ah, these Cambodian people. They just love to keep their money at home, like there aren’t any banks in the country.

If I have more than $100 in my pocket, that is a lot. Who keeps money at home? Even if you want to do a large transaction, you can always go to the bank first thing in the morning. Unfortunately, checks are still a rarity in Cambodia’s business circles.

A house like this; easy to scale, right?

When You Need a Doctor….

Where do you go in Phnom Penh? I am sure this problems confronts most expats at one time or another during their time in Cambodia. I believe a fellow blogger - ”LTO-Cambodia” - gave a pretty good run-down some time back of what’s available in Phnom Penh. My recent experience makes me take up that subject one more time.

Fortunately, I am a very healthy individual and don’t need a doctor much. Since I usually leave Cambodia at least once a year I have any necessary check-ups done abroad, formerly in the U. S., now in Europe. Although the health care system is excellent, the cost in the U. S. is prohibitive, now that I don’t carry U.S. health insurance any more. Germany has an equally excellent health care system, and the cost is only a fraction of that in the U. S., even as a private out-patient. The great advantage there is you only need to go see one doctor. They all have the necessary equipment in their office, e. g. ultra-sound, X-ray, their own lab, etc. In the U. S. you are sent from one office to the next, which really makes seeing a doctor a big hassle.

Unfortunately, my wife is afflicted with some more or less minor health problems, which I presume to be the consequences of her early childhood during the Pol Pot years. Of course, she used to go to local doctors, or clinics, which abound in the city. Later she got quality health care in the U. S. and in Europe.

Here are our experiences with health care in Cambodia. A few years ago, around 2005, my son needed medical attention and we took him to one of those store-front clinics. The sanitary and hygienic conditions were repulsive and disgusting. Bedsheets were a nice ‘grey’; although people walk barefoot, the floor was grimy. The doctor wanted to give my son an injection, which didn’t happen because of his needle-phobia, and I was grateful for it in that instance as we really didn’t know whether it would have been advisable to have that needle stuck into him. So we left. Of course, compared to Western fees, these services are outright cheap, but you don’t know whether you go home in better or worse health. Needless to say, that was the first and last time we went there.

Initially, my step-daughter didn’t live with us in the U. S. During that time she was suffering from a rather rare syndrome in her intestines (I don’t want to go into details here), which we didn’t know about as it had not manifested itself before. But then she started suffering from nausea, vomitting, stomach and abdominal pain. A friend of my wife’s took her to a clinic. The first thing they did was hook her up to an IV, as they always do in Cambodia, whether you need it or not. The diagnosis was as hazy as the doctor’s knowledge. It was during the year we came to pick them up to come live with us. During our stay that same friend advised us to see a ‘famous’ doctor, apparently one of the chief doctors at the Calamette Hospital. He did bloodwork, took X-rays, and seemed to examine her thoroughly. His diagnosis: she had water in her abdomen. How it got there and the cause of it, that eminent doctor didn’t know. Treatment: another IV. Charge: $50.

When we got to the U. S. her symptoms persisted and I took her to an internist who just by looking at her was able to diagnose the problem (there were outward signs by which an expert recognizes the syndrome immediately). Naturally, he ran all the necessary checks and tests on her, including endoscopy and colonoscopy and started a treatment, which brought about a remission of that syndrome. Now that we are Cambodia she is still sympton-free and enjoys the normal life of young woman.

In my early years here I had a stomach problem, which was accompanied by a slight fever. Fearing a malaria-type infection my friend suggested I see the Tropical & Traveller’s Medical Clinic. A Western-educated doctor examined me, diagnosed minor food poisoning and gave me appropriate medication. Charge: $50. That was in around 1996.

My son suffered from sneezing fits. On one of his visits it got so bad that I took him to a nose-ear-throat specialist at the Aurore clinic. The doctor found the culprit quickly; unfortunately, the cure would have involved minor surgery, which we didn’t want to have done here. My son got some medication though, which helped alleviate the problem. Cost: $15, plus medicine (2009).

Since Florida my wife suffered from chronic allergies. These abated when here – for whatever reason – but one time they came back and got so bad that we decided to see the same doctor at Aurore. He prescribed a range of medicines; one of which produced a severe reaction in the form of stomach pain. Result: she needed to spend a night there in order to settle down her stomach; of course, an IV was administered as well. This time though, it definitely was part of the healing process. Cost for all of this: $100 for private room, food, care, medication (2010).

This past May, my son was visiting. He arrived with a severe cold, which I also unfortunately caught from him. Having had a rather good experience with the good NET doctor we went there again. Again, as seems to be the practice in Cambodia he prescribed about 5 to 6 medicines for him and for me. Charge: $25 plus $15 for the X-ray.

They eventually helped and after a week or so he was ok again. I, however, couldn’t shake off that cold, and on top of it I lost part of my hearing in my right ear. All that multitude of medications didn’t help. I went to see him about the loss of hearing; he said I needed to be a little patient. It is connected with the cold. After 3 weeks it hadn’t gotten better one bit so I decided to seek help from the NET doctor – a Russian gentleman - at that new hospital in Phnom Penh Thmey – the Sen Sok University Hospital. He prescribed a simple remedy: close your mouth and nose by clamping your hand over it, then exhale strongly so that your ear pops. Then swallow. Repeat that three times a day. After a week the hearing should be back. Lo and behold, it was back after a couple of days. Cost: $50 (2011).

Heartened by this experience, we went there again for a case of suspected heart troubles some time later. Fortunately, it turned out to be a false alarm. Cost of consultation and ECG: $100.

A splitting headache caused us seek their help again. The doctor order bloodworks and once the results were back prescribed the usual plethora of medications. The medications helped; the headaches subsided. Cost: $100 for the bloodworks, $40 for the consultation, and $60 for the medications.

Like many people we self-medicate minor problems. A few times there were urinary infections, which were healed with anti-biotics. But the problem with anti-biotics and with medication to relieve headaches, like ibuprofen or aspirin, is that they affect the stomach and can cause an inflammation of the stomach lining if taken over a longer period of time.

This happened to my wife. So we went to Sen Sok Hospital again. The good doctor, after listening to the description of the problems, immediately inserted an IV – what else? Then he suggested that she stay overnight for observation; additionally an upper stomach fluid probe needs to be taken and tested. So far so good, I thought, as he explained he needs to rule out certain causes to be sure which treatment to administer. The test came back negative, that is, no bacteria, fungi, etc.; diagnosis: gastritis from overmedication. Cost for test and consultation: $60.00.

The next morning when I came to pick her up she was still hooked up to the IV – the third one she told me – and additionally there was another bag added to the drip. My wife complained that the doctor hadn’t been in to see her at all. I went to look for him. Well, I found him downstairs at the entrance cleaning his large Lexus SUV himself, watched by a couple of male nurses. I approached him and asked whether he would have a minute. So we went aside, he with sweat on his brow, and he explained that the second bag contained medicine for the inflammation of the stomach; once that was finished she could go home. As it happened, that took a little over two hours. The nurse mentioned that she wanted to hook up another IV, which met with our determined protests. We just wanted to go home.

A few minutes later, she showed up again with the bill in hand. The total: $297.49. I looked at it and thought there must be a mistake. After all, I had already paid $60 the previous night. They must have added the bill for the room by mistake twice. At the cashier’s office the woman explained that indeed this was correct as my wife had been there two days. She had checked in at around 5 pm. It was then 2:30 o’clock the next day, so she was charged $60 for the room, consultation, and nurse’s care twice. I objected strongly. Also on looking closer at the bill, I found that the charges for all medications were $125. I was wondering, “What on earth had been so expensive?” One IV was $20 to begin with, plus that special drip was $30. Long story short, I argued back and forth with the good doctor who finally agreed to reduce the bill. He had also prescribed 4 medications; for another $46, mind you. Two were for stomach relief, one was for fungi, and one – another anti-biotic - was for bacteria. Now that threw me. The tests were negative for both, and the anti-biotic was the culprit in the first place. How can that quack prescribe one redundant and one in her case harmful medication? I just told the nurse to keep them. In the end I paid $180, and made it clear to the doctor and the nurses that they wouldn’t see us again at their institution. That whole thing was a rip-off, if ever there was one. And the irony of this story: they advertise 50% discounts on a big banner at the entrance.

Now where does that leave people who look for qualified medical care in Cambodia? I still believe the Sen Sok Hospital is a rather good place to turn to. They have experts in almost all fields. Their diplomas are displayed prominently in the huge waiting area. Most have degrees from the U. S., France, South Korea, Thailand, or Russia. In addition to the NET, the OB-GYN is Russian as well. A few have Cambodian degrees. That international background persuaded me to go there in the first place, never mind the slightly higher cost. The way I see it the doctors there get a base salary and then receive premiums for patients treated and medications prescribed. It was rather conspicuous that on each occasion they wanted to keep my wife there overnight. I guess a way to avoid that is to talk to the doctor very clearly about the expenses.

The best-known hospital in Phnom Penh is the Calamette, a French-run hospital. At one time I needed to take an old aunt of my wife’s to the ER. The conditions there are appalling. People who look like they can’t afford it (e. g. that old aunt) are kept waiting for hours. Doctors simply refuse to look at them. That place is definitely not for foreigners, although from what I know it is the only place where emergency surgeries are performed. In general, if you are not going to be treated by a French doctor I wouldn’t go there.

The a. m. Aurore is a place with expert doctors as well, whether it is an internist, NET, OB-GYN, urologist, etc. The cost is pretty reasonable and although the place looks a little run-down, it is clean and has all the equipment needed. The experts also perform surgery in their fields. The rooms are located in the upper stories. At least you won’t have to bring your own food. They feed you too. A consultation is $25; the room with board is $60; an X-ray is $15. They also have an MRI; I don’t know the cost for that, though.

Another international-class hospital is the Royal Rattanak Hospital. This is a Thai-run institution; it is big and looks modern and clean. The drawback there is that they only provide general medicine, which may be enough in most cases, but I am a firm believer in specialized care. If you don’t earn a high income or have adequate health insurance you might not want to go there anyway; a consultation is $125, the rooms start at $250 a night.

Then there is the American Medical Clinic at the Cambodiana Hotel. It is staffed by American doctors; a consultation is $45. Again, the drawback here is only general medicine.

Other than that, I am sure there are a number of hospitals, clinics around that I haven’t heard of or know about. But who wants to try them out as a sort of guinea pig? We will most likely use the Aurore from now on.

A word about those ever-present IVs, people even ride on the back of a motorcycle attached to one; I don’t know for sure but I believe doctors prescribe them automatically as they know that strangely enough Cambodian people don’t seem to drink enough and may be dehydrated a lot of times. Dehydration is a major cause for headaches, and anybody who has ever come in closer contact with Cambodians knows that they suffer from headaches and migranes a lot.

But principally I go by two rules that a doctor whom I knew rather well gave me:

‘A cold will take a week to go away with medication, and 7 days without medication.’

‘Don’t ever have anybody stick a needle into you, or cut you open, unless it is absolutely necessary.’

And finally, depending on the kind of coverage, age, history, etc., basic health insurance is about $85 a month in Cambodia, which is cheap in comparison to the West but given the low cost of health care in general it usually doesn't pay to buy one. The big if is, of course, hospitalization for a grave illness, a traffic accident, or similar, treatment of which might run into the thousands, if not hundreds of thousands. Then you are screwed if you don't have one. Think about that when you go see a doctor next time, or better, get one now.

Next Steps for the SRP

The Appeals Court reduced Sam Rainsy’s sentence by three years to seven. This has been the only item about him in the news for a long time now. Nevertheless some still ask whether he will get that royal pardon or not. I personally doubt it. This time the rift was too deep.

In that context I would like to quote two cables courtesy of Wikileaks. At about the same time I had come to the same conclusions – and I am no politician. Sam Rainsy is currently a non-entity in Cambodia. His virulent anti-Vietnamese rhetoric just does not resonate with the people as a whole. He merely panders to the geriatric Lon Nolists overseas with his diatribes.

Cable Jan. 29, 2010 - Excerpt
9. (C) The SRP Permanent Committee agreed January 28 to file an appeal later during the 30-day window, even though the initial public rhetoric will focus on the inability to secure justice and the futility of an appeal. Among the core SRP leadership, there is a realization that the loss of Rainsy's charisma, his dramatic speaking style, and his ability to unite will be keenly felt in Cambodia. A strategy to hold several digital video conferences with Rainsy from France and assurances of renewed commitment by the party faithful appear to be attempts to put a brave face on a serious setback. Some in the SRP worry that Human Rights Party (HRP) President Kem Sokha is already intent on stealing away SRP members to
the HRP in an attempt to make HRP the "legitimate opposition" that the CPP knows that it needs. Fissures in the SRP appear to be emerging with one group of accomplished and publicly
popular parliamentarians such as Son Chhay and Mu Sochua potentially squared off against an inner circle close to Rainsy and Tioulong Saumura, Rainsy's spouse and fellow SRP MP. Some observers see the Rainsy case as an old CPP tactic to divide and conquer the political opposition and suggest the CPP tactic is working.

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COMMENT
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10. (SBU) In both the prelude to the hearing and the reaction to the verdict, the SRP appeared uninterested in addressing the actual charges of Rainsy's role in property destruction and incitement, and instead focused on the larger issue of whether the border markers are improperly placed (Ref B). Rainsy continues to claim sole responsibility for the removal of the temporary border markers, despite video
showing he did not physically uproot them but brandished them for the cameras after others had pulled them up (Ref A). With the January 27 verdict, Rainsy cannot return to Cambodia unless he goes to prison or receives a pardon, which requires agreement of the government. In the meantime, without a leader present in Cambodia able to project a confident image and articulate opposition perspectives, the SRP faces tough decisions about what to do next and the ultimate direction of their party. In the end, most find it difficult to imagine how Rainsy's stunt will increase the SRP's political relevance in Cambodia, despite the headlines it attracted by Rainsy's very visible and vocal efforts to mobilize anti-Vietnam passion while most of Cambodia's population was focused on Thai border issues. However the SRP emerges from
this incident, it is clear that -- at least for now -- the playing field for opposition politics has been reduced as a result.
RODLEY

Cable Dec. 18, 2009 - Excerpt
Rainsy is doing nothing to calm the waters form his Paris venue, where he lashes out at the government a and attracts opposition funding. If Hun Sen sticks by his recent fit of pique not to pardon Rainsy until Rainsy has served two thirds of his sentence, the opposition may well have to readjust its leadership calibrations.
End quote

Meanwhile of late, the SRP members of parliament sent a letter to the local director of the World Bank asking that the WB maintain withholding funds from the Cambodian government until the Boeung Kak Lake issues have been resolved. Although those issues are indeed thorny and remedies are overdue and come rather late, if not too late, I have never read or known that MPs advocate measures aimed against their own country no matter of what quality they think the government is; those funds indirectly benefit their own constituents, among others. It is the WB’s perfect right to suspend funds, but for parliamentarians to ask them goes against the responsibilities and duties of elected members of parliament; it directly contravenes the principles of democracy in my mind. As long as the opposition is of such a caliber there is no chance on earth that they will ever have enough stature to be part of a government. So where is the alternative leadership the U. S. ambassador refers to? Isn’t it time for them to be more vocal? I haven’t read anything from them or about them. Two years until the next election is not a long time in terms of a campaign that has to make do without a lot of money for media exposure.