What a coincidence; yesterday Prime Minister Hun Sen stated he would not ask for a pardon for Sam Rainsy this time around. Since the PM never goes back on his public pronouncements (as far as I know) I believe we can expect that this will be the end of Sam Rainsy's political career in Cambodia. I just can't see SR coming back to face a certain prison term.
Whether all this is good or bad for the opposition remains to be seen. The country as such surely won't suffer any consequences, e. g. donor countries cutting back on aid, etc., which Sam Rainsy and his cohorts always clamored for. But with Sam Rainsy gone this actually would give the opposition a chance to regroup and form a real opposition, not one just based on one personality. But then, this affair is far from over, I would think. The next few months will tell.