Sunday, October 17, 2010

Khmer Intelligence

Khmer Intelligence operates as if it were a news service disseminating its reports by email. I get my copy from How I got on their mailing list, I do not know. They are, of course, anti-government and staunchly pro-SRP. I assume they are based in France, although they report in English.

A lot of times their reports serve only one purpose, it seems – to destabilize the government in order to get rid of Hun Sen who is seen as the primary source of all evil in Cambodia.

On October 07, 2010, this rather obscure outfit ran two reports. One is claiming that the Vietnamese leadership is quietly moving to have Hun Sen replaced from his position as the next candidate for Prime Minister in the 2013 elections. It also named Men Sam An as the possible successor. I am sure this lady was glad to read her name in this report. If she was vying for that job, nothing could have come at a worse time than this. If KI (are they connected to KI-Media at all?) is aiming to destabilize Hun Sen this was the wrong ploy. If indeed it were true, Hun Sen would just grill this lady what her plans were and simply sack her from her post. This way he would consolidate his power rather than weaken his position.

KI sent out numerous pieces of misinformation in the past, e. g. the wobbly state of the Foreign Trade Bank, and I venture to say that this is just another one.

The second story claims that Hun Sen equipped his most loyal army units with the new tanks Cambodia bought from Eastern Europe. The say he has become paranoid about a possible internal coup and will use those units to strengthen his grip on power. Historically it is true that autocratic heads of state get more paranoid the longer they stay in power but I can’t believe that this is the case with Hun Sen - quite the opposite.

Hun Sen is achieving ever-greater stature internationally with each conference, e. g. the U. S. – Asean meeting in New York, or the EU-Asean meeting in Brussels recently. The economy is on the rebound, people are not all unhappy with the current state of affairs, as in some way they do participate in it, as little as it may for the majority. I personally cannot see any unrest among the population in general.

In addition, one good indicator of the economic resurgence is the resumed strong building activity all over Cambodia, not only in Phnom Penh. Real estate prices have stabilized, although at lower level (but still too high in my humble opinion). The nomenclature, Hun Sen’s power base, is satisfied too and won’t want to upset the apple cart. And finally, Hun Sen is a close friend of Vietnam’s power elite and they couldn’t wish for a better ally in his post, I believe. So they have no reason to get him out.

It probably is true that China and Vietnam are maneuvering for dominance of the region, but it takes place on the economic front and nothing can beat China there at the moment, right?

I guess KI is just a bunch of old Lon Nol refugees in France, the U. S. and Australia who cling to their outdated views of the world and Cambodia and just can’t see that the 2010 world scene has drastically changed from the 1970ies, ‘80ies, and even ‘90ies.

This is proven in another piece they ran. Cambodian communities all over the world are organizing campaigns to revive the 1991 Paris Agreements.

Cambodian communities all over the world? Hey, how many are we talking about here – millions? Yeah, right. Estimates of overseas Khmer run anywhere from 300,000 to 400,000 worldwide. One third is too young to be politically active, one fifth is too old or too apathetic, and 80% of all adults are politically inactive to begin with (if you go by averages in other nations). What remains are maybe 20,000 people worldwide. (Wow that sure is an impressive number.) Additionally, they are not even Cambodian citizens; at least other countries see it this way. So do you think this will meet with great interest in the signatory nations? I don’t think so. As long as there is no strong movement from within Cambodia pushing for some international action, if such were needed, I can’t see how any of those countries’ governments will lend an ear to them. It is futile, can’t they see this? In this case even a constant drop in the bucket won’t fill it, believe me.


Hank said...

Spot on, these overseas Cambodians are well out of touch with reality, their methods are laughable. If they ever want to be taken seriously they'll have to try a bit harder than repeating Pol Pot propaganda from 30 years ago endlessly, it's pathetic really.

Anonymous said...

Who are these Lon Nol refugees by your definition?

Anonymous said...

We have a proof that KI news came and are invented by no other than Sam Rainsy himself.