Suspension of Immunity – What’s It All About

The National Assembly is poised to lift Sam Rainsy’s immunity so that the local government in Svay Rieng can subpoena him in connection with the removal of border markers.

In most but the most-ardent SR supporting circles, Sam Rainsy’s actions were seen as foolish and inappropriate for an elected MP. Sam Rainsy appears as though he is out to rattle Hun Sen’s chain whenever and wherever he can. What also riled Hun Sen obviously very much were Sam Rainsy’s remarks in Bangkok when he spoke at the Southeast Asian Press Alliance. Hun Sen made that clear in his various statements about the Thaksin issue. Equally clear to most observers is the fact that this is an issue of head-butting between the two, never mind that Sam Rainsy said he wanted to draw attention to the Eastern border and help local villagers. Hun Sen wants to show Sam Rainsy and others like him that there is no way they can accomplish anything by working against him and his government. Hun Sen’s feelings were expressed in his recent interview he gave in Tokyo regarding the Thaksin spat. He said this is between Abhisit and him, not between the countries. The same applies to the Sam Rainsy issue. This is not about political differences, this is about Sam Rainy’s hardheaded, intransigent approach to opposition politics versus Hun Sen’s idea of how to run the country and his severe dislike of Sam Rainsy - and Mu Sochua by the same token – returned overseas Khmer who led a comfortable life while the rest suffered through hardship. Just as Sam Rainsy uses every opportunity to show up the government and its failures, Hun Sen will use every opportunity to show Sam Rainsy who is the boss. And he will use the instruments of power given to him by his landslide victory in the last election.

Nevertheless, in this instance just as in the Mu Sochua case one must wonder whether the steps taken to make their point are appropriate too. Just as it would probably have been wiser to just let matters rest with Ms. Sochua, it would appear to be prudent policy to just give Sam Rainsy a slap on the wrist. Seeing this from a foreigner’s perspective, there must be other instruments available than lifting an opponent’s parliamentarian immunity to discipline him for inappropriate, possibly minor illegal, actions. Censure or simple reprimand comes to mind. The Vietnamese government could probably be mollified by an official apology, notwithstanding the fact that the border markers were possibly unofficial. But just as Sam Rainsy is pretty hardheaded so is Hun Sen. And there is no question who is going to be the loser. The Prime Minister is not just content to sideline Sam Rainsy as others more even-tempered heads of government would do, he must teach him a lesson. Sam Rainsy probably reckons the world will in the end step in to rein in Hun Sen if he indeed were arrested and possibly sent to jail. But history should have taught him that this is unrealistic. As much as Western governments pay lip service to human rights and democratic opposition politics, they consider this a country’s internal affairs and consequently will not meddle in Cambodia’s affairs.

Rubber News

It’s been a while since I last reported about the state of the rubber industry. As I had mentioned we needed to wait about a year until there was a rebound in prices. This is even happening sooner than I expected, so good news. Sure enough, yesterday’s prices for dry latex was KHR 7,500, up from KHR 4,800 at the beginning of the season, but still lower then last year’s high of KHR 10,800.

I believe this is about the level it should stay at, not that I wouldn’t mind higher prices, but those higher prices would surely be the result of another overheating, only to come down hard again. The main component in the recovery of Cambodia’s rubber industry is China, the main buyer of Cambodian crepe rubber, either directly or through Vietnam. China’ s economy is still humming along at an about 8% growth rate. They managed to dampen the effects of the financial crisis much better than Western countries, as many economists point out.

The Cambodian government privatized about 25,000 ha in 2008/9 – the right move in my mind – and I believe investing in a rubber plantation is still something worth considering if people have a mind for it. The total acreage under cultivation in Cambodia is about 85,000 ha. There is still room for a lot more until the planned 130,000 ha are reached; the government’s official target acreage. A lot of the previous state plantations are older trees, which will soon reach their end of productivity. So even if there is no increase in demand any new plantations will partially fill a void left by the end of production of those old trees.

Good land for cultivation is available from private sellers in both Kompong Cham and Kompong Thom provinces, although one might have to search hard. The best chances are in Rattanakiri province. The only drawback there is the access roads. The last 120 km is still a pitted dirt road, which was virtually unnavigable after Ketsana. The government with the help of the Chinese has started building a new paved road but completion won’t be until 2015. So until that time one must expect travel times of about up to 6 hours in the rainy season if you want to go easy on your car, and about 2 hours during the dry season. A good alternative is to use one of the overland coaches and rent a car/truck with driver in Rattanakiri. Believe me the trip is much more comfortable this way.

Prices for arable land alone is about $2,000/ha and once trees have been planted from $3,000/ha up to $15,000/ha depending on the age of the trees. Producing plantations go for about $20,000/ha. If the plantation is managed on ‘lean’ principles the return on investment can be anywhere from 8% to 12%. Prospects will be even better if prices stay at the a. m. level.

Banana Republic Politics?

For those of you who don’t know we are not talking about the apparel brand, by the way. Before relative stability entered Latin American politics, let’s not mention Honduras for the moment, the many coup d’états by the military in Latin America led people to call them Banana Republics, implying these countries were good at farming bananas but not at Western-style politics.

The Thaksin spat between Cambodia and Thailand certainly reminds one of that era in the Western hemisphere. However, what appears as gamesmanship on the surface on second look turns out to be a calculated maneuver on Hun Sen’s part.

Although Thaksin and Hun Sen seem to enjoy a friendly personal relationship, there were no great efforts to openly assist Thaksin after he was overthrown in 2006. His government’s legacy was that they had acceded to Preah Vihear being a Khmer World Heritage Site and there was practically no border dispute that seemed irresolvable at the time. For that, he was appreciated, but that was about all – yeah, he promised a huge Koh Kong development after that, but Cambodia has heard many promises from many people in the last decade.

This all changed once Preah Vihear was officially declared a Khmer site. The border issue bubbled back up full force again at the same time. We all know what happened after that.

Legally, it appears, Cambodia is in safe waters, so why hasn’t the government pressed their arguments more forcefully in their negotiations with the Thai government? Whenever the Cambodians indicated they might bring the issue up at the UN or even the International Court in The Hague, the Thais emphasized this is a problem that must be solved bilaterally. ASEAN obviously is no great help in that matter either. No tangible progress has been accomplished so far - so why that endless patience with the Thai counterparts?

An important factor is that Abhisit will soon face elections. One political analyst summed it up nicely when he said, “Hun Sen and other Cambodian leaders are likely aware of the anger that Thaksin’s arrival here will elicit from Abhisit’s government, but may be playing the two sides of Thailand’s intensely polarized domestic politics against one another. The Cambodian government may foresee that the pro-Thaksin group will win the next election in Thailand, so by then all border issues will be solved, and friendship will be rebuilt.” (Chheang Vannarith in the Phnom Penh Post).

Hun Sen’s maneuver, which many thought foolish at the beginning, might just play out that way. Although Abhisit gained substantially in the polls after the recall of the ambassadors, in the medium term his inability to rein in a ‘small, weak’ neighbor will cost him dearly within his own PAD movement, and Thaksin with his wide popularity in rural Thailand is just the right person to help Hun Sen resolve the ‘Thai problem’. Sam Rainsy’s remarks that the government just wants to divert attention from the pressing economic problems and the Eastern border issues are again characteristic for him and off the mark altogether in this chess game.

Hun Sen’s reasoning that Thaksin is for all intents and purposes a political refugee cannot be dismissed out of hand. Thaksin was elected fair and square, although the fair may have been a little tarnished. He was later overthrown in a military coup. The resultant conviction of corruption and tax evasion might or might not have been politically motivated. Who’s to know? In normal democracies, prime ministers or presidents are impeached if they commit crimes while in office, or they have to face a vote of no confidence. A coup d’état is illegal under any constitution. Strictly speaking, the present Thai government is illegitimate since it was the indirect result of a coup. Never mind, that Thaksin’s successor party – the People’s Power Party - won the election that had been called by the military junta; but then the party was disbanded by the court for election fraud. Let’s face it; Thai politics are as murky as those in a banana republic. Abhisit’s statement that the appointment of Thaksin was an insult to the Thai judicial system sounds hollow and hypocritical. Of course, the Thai government was recognized by virtually every nation, so the illegitimacy is somewhat moot. The fact that Thaksin is sought by international warrant won’t change his popularity with the Thai population. If he were to return to Thailand under pardon from the King (very unlikely) all bets are that he would win the elections hands down.

If, in fact, he will come to Cambodia as appears more than likely, that warrant would need to be carried out by the Cambodian police. As a fellow blogger noted Cambodia is a member of Interpol and would have to execute the warrant. Regardless of the Interpol membership, national jurisdiction supersedes any warrant issued by a foreign government. That’s is why there are bi- and multi-lateral extradition agreements in place. And in Cambodia what Hun Sen says counts.

Extra-parliamentary Opposition

Many SRP followers hailed Sam Rainsy’s recent ‘publicity stunt’ as a great call of awakening. They see this as an overdue calling attention to the Eastern border problems, which, in their opinion, is just as grave as the problem with Thailand. Needless to say, this is a great misjudgment of the situation.

Sam Rainsy’s actions, however, are nothing less than outright ludicrous. One can only ask oneself, ‘What was he thinking?’ One can understand the local villagers that want to take matters in their own hands in the face of a possible border violation by probably Vietnamese villagers on the other side. Whether or not the border markers were inside Cambodian territory, it certainly is not appropriate for the leader of the opposition to pull the posts out. Perhaps he got carried away. Perhaps he thought this was a good opportunity to get back into the headlines as it had become a little quiet about him in recent weeks. After all, Hun Sen had one scoop after another recently, what with his invitation and now appointment of Thaksin.

The issue with the border markers would ordinarily have been rather insignificant had it not been for Sam Rainsy’s activism. An opposition leader’s place is in the National Assembly and at the helm of his party. These are the venues where he can make speeches, denounce the government, and lay out his proposals. As an MP he is a member of the legislative body, not the executive. Border disputes clearly are within the responsibility and jurisdiction of the government. As a man who constantly calls for the rule of law, he should be the first to abide by it.

He did the same as the Red or Yellow shirts in Thailand. But these are what’s generally called extra-parliamentary opposition. They can stage demonstrations, hold sit-ins, mass-rallys, or whatever else pleases them, in order to make their point of view known. They can also resort to civil disobedience. A member of parliament’s weapons are his or her voice, and his or her legislative actions. If they want to use the tools of the extra-parliamentary opposition, they should join them and resign from their seat in the National Assembly. That would be the right thing to do. Who knows, a career change might do wonders for his future.

Hard News or Innuendo?

There is an organization calling itself Khmer Intelligence that circulates so-called confidential news by newsletter. They email it at irregular intervals. Although it uses a sort of journalistic format, the information disseminated clearly makes the reader understand what this group wants to say. On the basis of their selective news, it clearly demonstrates its anti-CPP and anti-government stance. As with most anonymous websites the source of their information is unknown and almost never revealed, as, of course, are the publishers. (And that includes my blog. I do, however, reveal my identity once people get in touch with me by email. I just don’t see the point in dragging my name all over the internet.)

Khmer Intelligence’s reports oftentimes contain sensitive information, as was the case a while back and in their most recent newsletter dated October 29.

A few months ago, they published that a number of banks in Cambodia are on shaky grounds on account of the real-estate bust. It specifically named the Foreign Trade Bank of Cambodia (FTB) and Canadia Bank. These banks are two of the largest banks in Cambodia. This prompted the government to issue a statement denying the allegations declaring that these banks are very stable and are not affected by the economic crisis, as their exposure to real estate loans was minimal.

On October 29, (I somehow got on their mailing list) Khmer Intelligence published another piece on these two banks.

Quote
Canadia Bank now controlled by Hun Sen's family (2)

Partly as a result of bad loans linked to the collapsing property sector, Canadia Bank, Cambodia's largest commercial bank, has recently come under the control of Prime Minister Hun Sen's family (wife and children). The information is not made public because of concerns about corruption probe and Canadia Bank is involved in several cases of land grabbing.
The Hun Sen family has also taken control of several large development projects abandoned by South Korean firms, such as the 42-storey Gold Tower.
Unquote

I wonder what KI (any relation to KI-Media?) is implying? Why would Hun Sen’s family become involved in a bank that’s suffering from non-performing loans? I don’t get it. Are we to believe that otherwise Canadia Bank would have collapsed? I know for a fact from ‘confidential sources’ – people that are in the real estate business and do business with Canadia Bank – that there are people indebted to Canadia and that, for all intents and purposes, their property is practically owned by Canadia. Most likely, some people in the upper echelons of government also own shares in the bank, possibly, and I really don’t know, Hun Sen’s family too. But why would they now want to control the bank? To me it doesn’t make sense.

Now the biggest scoop is the info about the Gold Tower. A while back, I had already written about a rumor that the government exerted subtle pressure on the Koreans building the Gold Tower not to abandon it, as they obviously had run into financing problems. One mustn’t forget that the Koreans had invested a lot of money in the land already. If they just abandoned the project, they would have lost a bundle. So here too, it doesn’t make sense to expose oneself to a disproportionate risk when the Koreans were eventually able to get financing back on track in Korea based on the previous investment.

So I take it what KI really wants to say is that the ‘voracious’ Hun Sen family is extending its tentacles ever more and won’t rest until they own all of Cambodia? I guess in this case it would have been appropriate to show some documents confirming all this. This way it is just another rumor, which they are spreading to bring both the bank and Hun Sen’s family in disrepute. They really needn’t have bothered because their newsletter is only read by government opponents, such as SRP members, and a certain segment of overseas Khmer, and these people have enough disdain and outright hate for Hun Sen already.

Equally astounding is the other information they published.

Quote
Foreclosures expected by the end of the year (2)

The government finds it more and more difficult to prevent several nearly bankrupt commercial banks ridden with property-linked bad loans (Canadia Bank, Foreign Trade Bank) from conducting foreclosures. A large number of properties will be seized by the end of the year from the banks' defaulting clients and sold at auction. Observers expect a further drop in property prices in the next few months.Unquote

Again, what’s the intention of this piece? The government doesn’t like the banks to foreclose on non-performing loans? Ah, I get it; it’s bad for Cambodia’s reputation. It would undermine the already shaky state of the real estate and construction industry.

Whom is KI kidding? Probably themselves, because by now everybody knows that there hardly is any real estate industry to begin with (see my previous article). And will auctions revive this sector? I doubt it. Who would buy all those townhouses even at rock bottom bargain rates just to have them sit empty? How many Cambodians are there that have $30,000 for a townhouse (Eo only) - 4.5 x 20 m?

As I read it, they are seemingly happy that is has come to this point - that all those in their minds ill-gotten gains will now suffer or even collapse. A collapse of the entire sector and a few banks with it like in the U. S. would have much wider repercussions, and we really shouldn’t wish for that, should we? We’ll see what happens, but I don’t believe we’ll see large-scale auctions like in the U. S. These KI people really aren’t thinking clearly. It looks like their vision has become clouded and their intentions turned from being critical to being malicious, even pernicious. Perhaps I am wrong; I wish I were.